Initial Conditions

So this weekend there’s the first round of World Cup qualifiers, in Europe anyway, so I thought I’d give my predictions for the home nations, Ireland and selected other matches. Here goes:

Andorra v England: It’s easy to predict an away win here, but that’s exactly what I am going to do. Andorra have actually won a World Cup qualifier in the past (beating Macedonia in the 2006 edition) but England, despite their current woes, have too much quality and are likely to get a very physical game from one of the dirtiest sides in Europe. England will win comfortably, but games against these sort of teams don’t tell you much about how good your team is. Steve McLaren’s England were booed at half time as it was 0-0 last year, but that shouldn’t happen again.

Prediction: 0-4, with Andorra to be reduced to ten men. Or less.

Fact: Andorra’s stadium only holds 1500 people, which is why this game is being played in Barcelona’s Olympic Stadium

Macedonia v Scotland: Macedonia are the sort of team that can ruin your campaign, without being in any actual danger of qualifying themselves. They stopped Ireland qualifying for Euro 2000 with a last minute equaliser and England have failed to beat them at home twice in recent years. Coupled with Scotland’s knack of dropping points to lower ranked Eastern European sides (Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova etc), this is a tricky start for Burley’s men, particularly since there a less games and less room for error. Macedonia didn’t have a great Euro 2008 (they finished above rubbish Estonia and worse Andorra) and will be looking to get their campaign off to a good start. That said, Scotland won’t have the pressure they had against Georgia so should hopefully be a bit less retentive. But I think a draw is most likely.

Prediciton: 1-1

Fact: Macedonia’s biggest ever win was 11-1 away to Liechtenstein in the 98 World Cup.

Georgia v Ireland: Ireland will face Georgia in Germany thanks to the unfortunate political situation there. Georgia played well against Wales in a friendly, but that was Wales and it was a friendly. Not having to go to Tbilisi will be a great relief and it is likely to be a “home” atmosphere for Ireland. Georgia are something of a Jekyll and Hyde team, in that they are capable of very good results (eg beating Russia in Euro 2004 qualifying and Scotland in Euro 2008) but also some very poor ones (2-5 at home to Turkey and 6-1 in Denmark) and it all seems to depend on whether they feel like turning up or not. GIven the situation, I think they will play well out of patriotism, but Trappatoni’s Ireland should be too much. Away win, but only just.

Prediction: 1-2

Fact: Georgia’s first ever match was a 0-1 defeat to Moldova.

Slovakia v Northern Ireland: Ah Northern Ireland. The optimism that comes at the start of a new campaign is usually crushed by an awful performance and 0-3 defeat, and I remain optimistic that this will not happen again. However, our away record is dire. We’ve had two wins in our last 21 away games, and those were against minnows Malta and Liechtenstein. That said, we had good draws in Denmark and Sweden last time around (Sweden being a game we could have won, Denmark not so much), so it’s not as if the spirit is lacking away from Windsor Park. Slovakia are not to be underestimated, as Wales found out to their cost last time (they lost 1-5 in Cardiff although they won 5-2 in Bratislava), but their home form isn’t great (they only beat San Marino and Cyprus last time round). NI will play one up front (Lafferty’s injured) and that only means one thing…

Prediction: 0-0

Fact: Slovakia scored 33 goals in Euro 2008 qualifying, but that wasn’t enough. Because most of those goals were against Wales, Cyprus and San Marino, I would wager.

Wales v Azerbaijan: Wales are okay, Azerbaijan are rubbish, home win, all the way.

Prediction: 2-0
Fact: Azerbaijan’s stadium is named after the linesman that wrongly gave England their third goal in 1966.

Guest games:

Chile v Brazil: Chile are doing okay for themselves since finishing bottom of the South American pile in 2002. They were four points off a playoff place in 2006 and currently lie a point above Brazil in fourth place. Brazil haven’t really clicked thus fair and had some poor results, notably 1-1 in bottom Peru. Dunga is under fierce pressure to get a result here and against Bolivia in four days, and I think that Brazil’s players will be more up for this than they have been, for this reason. And that is why I think they’ll win.

Prediction: 1-3

Fact: Chile were banned from the ‘94 World Cup because their goalie pretended to have been hit by a firework in a 1990 World Cup qualifier by smearing fake blood all over his face. The firework never went anywhere near him.

Cuba v USA: Politically charged encounter that should see the Americans win, and bring back some nice cigars.

Prediction: 0-2

Fact: Americans are not normally allowed to go to Cuba, but the Soccer team has special dispensation to go there in the name of sport

New Caledonia v New Zealand: The Kiwis will progress to the next round, and win the OFC Nations cup if they win this. Which they will.

Prediction: 0-2

Fact: New Zealand played in the 1982 World Cup and lost all three games

Hope you enjoyed that! I’d like to hear any predictions you have for this weekend’s games. I will hopefully get some up for midweek as well.