Initial Conditions

Ferrari was the first team to unveil its new car at Mugello today, and here it is.

The strange shape is a lot to do with the new aero regulations laid down by the FIA to cut costs and increase overtaking. It’s a radical departure from what we are used to, and kind of reminds me of  GP2 or Formula 3 cars, but if it does result in increased overtaking then I’m sold. What I’m looking forward to most is the fact that drivers can now get a boost out of corners which may result in yet more overtaking. It remains to be seen if the Spanish GP will be worth watching for a change though.

PS I’m not a Ferrari fan, but I was looking forward to seeing what the cars this year would look like.

Tomorrow, the final round of the 2008 Formula One season is being run at Interlagos, Brazil and it’s a mouth-watering prospect.

Lewis Hamilton leads Felipe Massa by seven points, so Hamilton needs to finish fifth to secure a first World Championship. Failing that, seventh will do if Felipe comes second, and the title will go to the Briton if Massa comes lower than second.

But it is not a foregone conclusion by any stretch.

After qualifying, the grid will line up like this (data from BBC sport):

1. Felipe Massa (Brz) Ferrari 1min 12.368secs
2. Jarno Trulli (Ita) Toyota 1:12.737
3. Kimi Raikkonen (Fin Ferrari 1:12.825
4. Lewis Hamilton (GB) McLaren-Mercedes 1:12.830
5. Heikki Kovalainen (Fin) McLaren-Mercedes 1:12.917
6. Fernando Alonso (Spn) Renault 1:12.967
7. Sebastian Vettel (Ger) Toro Rosso-Ferrari 1:13.082
8. Nick Heidfeld (Ger) BMW Sauber 1:13.297
9. Sebastien Bourdais (Fra) Toro Rosso-Ferrari 1:14.105
10. Timo Glock (Ger) Toyota 1:14.230
11. Nelson Piquet (Brz) Renault 1:12.137
12. Mark Webber (Aus) Red Bull-Renault 1:12.289
13. Robert Kubica (Pol) BMW Sauber 1:12.300
14. David Coulthard (GB) Red Bull-Renault 1:12.717
15. Rubens Barrichello (Brz) Honda 1:13.139
16. Kazuki Nakajima (Jpn) Williams-Toyota 1:12.800
17. Jenson Button (GB) Honda 1:12.810
18. Nico Rosberg (Ger) Williams-Toyota 1:13.002
19. Giancarlo Fisichella (Ita) Force India-Ferrari 1:13.426
20. Adrian Sutil (Ger) Force India-Ferrari 1:13.508

Looking at this, it’s easy to see where Hamilton’s problems lie. While the championship would be his if things finished as they start tomorrow (but that wouldn’t make a very good race), he has many things to deal with from the off.

For one, he starts in fourth, which is bad news as you’re right in the first corner huddle and there’s every chance something can go wrong, particularly if your rival’s team-mate is write in front of you, not to mention a (probably) quite slow Toyota of Jarno Trulli. Then there’s Fernando Alonso, who he will see in his mirrors from the off. Alonso has stated that he wants “anyone but McLaren” to win the Championship (methinks somebody is angling for a Ferrari drive), and while Heikki is the meat in the 2007 McLaren team sandwich, he will be dangerous and won’t comprimise on any overtaking moves, and crucially, is a very good starter. Of course, obviously taking him out won’t happen.

But a popular opinion is that Hamilton’s biggest obstruction to victory is himself and his driving style. It seems difficult for him to accept that he does not have to win every race, and it was this attitude that saw his hopes evaporate into a Chinese gravel trap last year, and more recently, earn himself a penalty at Fuji for his erratic driving in the first corner. Pole position would have been ideal as that’s where he’s most comfortable, but starting in fourth is going to cause massive dilemmas for him: does he attack Kimi and Trulli or does he go defensive against Alonso (this assuming that Heikki won’t try to bother him too much)?

It’s something the team is going to have to try and sort out.

My prediciton? I think, if it stays dry, Massa will win the race, but Hamilton will win the title IF he keeps his cool (all this barring mechanical issues and other drivers not doing anything daft).

If it’s wet? Who knows! We could end up with a race like in 2003 which was so mad that nobody even knew who won it for ages. Check it out below!

It’s good to have reaction from all sides, and neutral as well.

In the United Kingdom (pro-Hamilton): BBC News

In Italy (pro-Ferrari, article in Italian): Gazzetta dello sport

In France (pro-Renault, but neutral in this instance, article in French) : L’équipe

In Germany (neutral, but slightly pro-McLaren due to Mercedes engines, in German): Die Zeit

In Spain (pro-Alonso, but with no direct interest in this, article in Spanish): Marca

In the Middle East: Al-Jazeera

Australia (neutral): Sydney Morning Herald

I get the impression that everyone except Italy seems to think this a bit of a joke, but obivously the press has limits as to what the can and can’t legally say. I have to agree with them, but that’s the limit as to what I’m going to say.

Today, Formula One Management announced that the British Grand Prix would be run at Donington from 2010 onwards, replacing Silverstone.

Silverstone’s future has been in the balance for a while, with Bernie Ecclestone anxious to end his “mates’ rates” arrangement with the circuit to get himself a bit more wonga (like he needs it) and to get Silverstone to improve its facilities. Until this year, there was an agreement that the historic Grands Prix (France, Italy, Britain, Monaco) would have their place on the calendar preserved if they paid a lower hosting fee than for new venues like China and Bahrain. This agreement has expired and Bernie clearly doesn’t want this arrangement to continue in its present format, hence Silverstone’s going to have to pay more.

No chance, the event was causing Silverstone’s owners too much of a loss, so the British Grand Prix was in danger. Step in Donington.

Donington is privately owned and its owners clearly feel they can afford to have F1’s circus turn up for ten years. Great. Except it’s crap. For a start it’s too short; and having played many many laps of this on various games over the years and it’s constantly been more of a chore than anything else with only one corner that’s vaguely memorable: the old hairpin which goes takes you from going steeply downhill to steeply uphill just after a model of a spitfire.

But that’s my opinion and maybe I’ll warm to it when it happens. After all, the sight of F1 cars on it is often enough to change my mind. I suppose I should just be glad the British GP is happening at all…

The BBC website has more information on this, also at www.formula1.com.

So, if any of you cared enough, the theme to my last few inverted comma posts was indeed that they were titles or nearly titles of Doctor Who episodes, specifically those from the first series. Congratulations to Dougie for spotting that, though I imagine these days that he’s not especially concerned about it.

Also answers to my Monaco Grand Prix quiz were: Nico Rosberg, Nelson Piquet and Damon Hill/ Jacques Villeneuve.

Also, I would just like to say that I enjoyed very much this weekend’s Monaco GP, even if James Allen wanted to compare Lewis to Ayrton Senna a lot of the time (wait at least until he’s won a title please). The fact that the two-hour limit was reached owed a lot to the rain, but it was hardly a bad thing. Montreal in two weeks should be equally interesting, if not more so.

End communication.

Some quiz questions for you:

Which driver, if he wins at Monaco this weekend, will bring his family the honour of being the only father-son combination to win the Monaco Grand Prix?

Which current driver’s father competed in it but didn’t win it?

Name the two ex-World champions from recent(-ish) times whose fathers both won the race, but did not win it themselves.

First person to reply with three correct answers wins…respect.

This Sunday is the last Sunday in May and that means that it’s Monaco Grand Prix time! For me, nothing beats the sight of 20 cars dashing around the tight streets of Monte Carlo for 78 laps. People compare it to trying to fly a helicopter in your living room, and maybe they’re right (you try taking a 1000bhp beast around the streets of Edinburgh). But hey, for the prospect of crashes alone, it can be pretty interesting to watch (heaven knows you can’t overtake there) especially if it’s raining, which the forecast is predicting. I can hardly wait!

F1 coverage is returning to the BBC next season. In the grand scheme of things it makes little difference, but on the whole I am quite positive about this.

The obvious advantage is the lack of adverts, ITV’s constant downfal. They were contractually obliged to show 5 three-minute advert breaks during each race, and while most of the time this doesn’t miss much (you’ll be lucky if you see more than ten seconds coverage after a safety car is deployed), there have been some terrible mishaps. My three “top” ones are:

2005 San Marino Grand Prix. Enthralled by the battle between Schumacher and Alonso, the director neglected to show the last advert break… until the third from last lap. The public missed the last three laps and ITV tried to pass them off as “live” at the end of the ad break. Those who listened to Five Live knew the result, those who didn’t knew they were being duped. Jim Rosenthal grovelled at the following race, but the damage was done.

2006 Japanese Grand Prix. Fernando Alonso exits the pits and ITV cuts to an ad break. While the public was enjoying cat food adverts, Michael Schumacher’s engine blew up at the second Degner. During the afternoon re-run they shifted the ad-break (as commentary still happens for the benefit of other countries who use the ITV feed) so it was less embarrassing (try and find James Allen’s commentary of this incident on youtube, it’s brilliant)

2007 Brazilian Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton has a bad error in the first corner but had started his comeback. Cut to commercial, cut the power to his engine. The boy wonder is down in 18th place and we all wonder what on earth happened.

I will admit though that it is tough to decide exactly when to go to an ad-break as anything can happen at any point, butthis is a problem the Beeb has never had.

In other respects, though, the beeb has much to live up to. ITV’s pre-race build-up is often (but not always, I’ll come to that later) interesting and informative, but, judging from the BBC’s Moto GP coverage, this may not be so hard for them to acheive (as a side note, can we please have Suzi Perry front the coverage?). Anyone who remembers how the coverage was before ITV took it knows how vile it actually was, so they will want to improve.

It remains to be seen if the BBC will be as Hamilton-orintated as ITV was in 2007, but if Radio Five is anything to go by, then this won’t be a problem and they’ll find more interesting things to do than interview Hamilton senior every week and more interesting commentators than James Allen. Keep Martin Brundle though, I like him (particularly his outbursts at foreign directors getting it wrong).

Anyway, yes, good thing indeed, very much so. Although I suspect there may some complaints from people who feel their licence fee is going to waste on this (the BBC wisely didn’t disclose the fee), but to be honest that’s exactly how I feel about certain other element’s of the BBC’s output (seriously, all those Lloyd Webber shows and Weakest Link celebrity specials can go jump). You’ll also get the Guardian readers who will argue that the BBC is promoting pollution or some nonsense. All I can say to them is that F1 is currently going through a phase of using biofuel with a view to it one day being used as standard not just there but for all road cars, which is something at least, no? Maybe that’s a weak argument but it’s something.

And I just can’t hide it!

Formula One is back in an hour or so and it’s going to be epic! This year I’m gunning for BMW, but whether they will actually win a race is a moot point. But anyway, yes I am excited enough to stay up until 4:30 in the morning to do so.

For the record, I find it hard to see beyond another Ferrari double, although hopefully this time it will be done without backdoor schananigans involving dossiers and disgruntled employees.

As for Melbourne today, I’m going to play it safe and say Hamilton win with Massa and Kovy on podium.

If you find my life, please mail it to me.