Initial Conditions

Tomorrow, the final round of the 2008 Formula One season is being run at Interlagos, Brazil and it’s a mouth-watering prospect.

Lewis Hamilton leads Felipe Massa by seven points, so Hamilton needs to finish fifth to secure a first World Championship. Failing that, seventh will do if Felipe comes second, and the title will go to the Briton if Massa comes lower than second.

But it is not a foregone conclusion by any stretch.

After qualifying, the grid will line up like this (data from BBC sport):

1. Felipe Massa (Brz) Ferrari 1min 12.368secs
2. Jarno Trulli (Ita) Toyota 1:12.737
3. Kimi Raikkonen (Fin Ferrari 1:12.825
4. Lewis Hamilton (GB) McLaren-Mercedes 1:12.830
5. Heikki Kovalainen (Fin) McLaren-Mercedes 1:12.917
6. Fernando Alonso (Spn) Renault 1:12.967
7. Sebastian Vettel (Ger) Toro Rosso-Ferrari 1:13.082
8. Nick Heidfeld (Ger) BMW Sauber 1:13.297
9. Sebastien Bourdais (Fra) Toro Rosso-Ferrari 1:14.105
10. Timo Glock (Ger) Toyota 1:14.230
11. Nelson Piquet (Brz) Renault 1:12.137
12. Mark Webber (Aus) Red Bull-Renault 1:12.289
13. Robert Kubica (Pol) BMW Sauber 1:12.300
14. David Coulthard (GB) Red Bull-Renault 1:12.717
15. Rubens Barrichello (Brz) Honda 1:13.139
16. Kazuki Nakajima (Jpn) Williams-Toyota 1:12.800
17. Jenson Button (GB) Honda 1:12.810
18. Nico Rosberg (Ger) Williams-Toyota 1:13.002
19. Giancarlo Fisichella (Ita) Force India-Ferrari 1:13.426
20. Adrian Sutil (Ger) Force India-Ferrari 1:13.508

Looking at this, it’s easy to see where Hamilton’s problems lie. While the championship would be his if things finished as they start tomorrow (but that wouldn’t make a very good race), he has many things to deal with from the off.

For one, he starts in fourth, which is bad news as you’re right in the first corner huddle and there’s every chance something can go wrong, particularly if your rival’s team-mate is write in front of you, not to mention a (probably) quite slow Toyota of Jarno Trulli. Then there’s Fernando Alonso, who he will see in his mirrors from the off. Alonso has stated that he wants “anyone but McLaren” to win the Championship (methinks somebody is angling for a Ferrari drive), and while Heikki is the meat in the 2007 McLaren team sandwich, he will be dangerous and won’t comprimise on any overtaking moves, and crucially, is a very good starter. Of course, obviously taking him out won’t happen.

But a popular opinion is that Hamilton’s biggest obstruction to victory is himself and his driving style. It seems difficult for him to accept that he does not have to win every race, and it was this attitude that saw his hopes evaporate into a Chinese gravel trap last year, and more recently, earn himself a penalty at Fuji for his erratic driving in the first corner. Pole position would have been ideal as that’s where he’s most comfortable, but starting in fourth is going to cause massive dilemmas for him: does he attack Kimi and Trulli or does he go defensive against Alonso (this assuming that Heikki won’t try to bother him too much)?

It’s something the team is going to have to try and sort out.

My prediciton? I think, if it stays dry, Massa will win the race, but Hamilton will win the title IF he keeps his cool (all this barring mechanical issues and other drivers not doing anything daft).

If it’s wet? Who knows! We could end up with a race like in 2003 which was so mad that nobody even knew who won it for ages. Check it out below!