Initial Conditions

I have had a relative flurry of blog posts recently , but I must confess that I will probably have not much time to write for the next while. Hence, I will be “recycling” some old posts from my previous blogspot blog to appease you while I ponder things. Not to worry though, I have two good ideas (yes, count ‘em TWO) for posts so they should make an appearance soon.

Meantime, enjoy my post about bookies and why you can’t fleece ‘em (unless you have a De Lorean and a copy of a 2015 Sports Almanac)

<<I don’t gamble, but I find odds fascinating. In my naive youth, I thought that bookies’ odds represented the actual probability of an event happening, but now I am aware this is not the case.

For instance, if, for some reason, bookies opened a book on the roll of a dice, you might find that the odds on it getting any particular number were 4/1 against (rather than 5/1 as you might expect). The reason for this is that I could bet £1 on each of the six possible outcomes and I would be guaranteed to get £6 back if the odds were 5/1 (you get your stake back if you win), thus breaking even. That would be utterly pointless, but the bookies want to get something out of you betting. Thus odds of 4/1 would guarantee that you would make a loss if you tried the “spread your money” scheme. This is why you might get, for example, two evenly matched teams being odds on to win a match they were playing against each other.

However, odds on a sporting event can still be misleading. The bookies only have part of the say as to what odds to give someone to win something, while the punters get the remaining say.

The reason for this is that if lots of punters seem to be betting on a particular event, the bookies will want to cut their losses and reduce the potential payout for this happening (thus losing less money). This is why England and English teams always seem to be among the favourites to win international competitions in Britain (but generally not elsewhere), since a lot of people here will bet on them (a lot of Scots are rumoured to bet on England: the logic being that if England win, then at least they will have something to make them happy. Frankly, that seems a bit daft).

Another thing you will find is that it is impossible to spread money over various bookies to ensure a guaranteed profit. You can get a maxiumum guaranteed return of about 95p for each pound bet currently on the 2008 Six Nations, for example. Doing it at all at the same bookie will net you about 85p max.

Thus, it is very difficult indeed to beat the bookie. There is one, guaranteed way to break even though. Bet £0 on everything. It worked for me.>>